Australia to win the World Cup

I think that the team with the most chance to win the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 is Australia. Many fans will point to the the class in the Indian batting lineup. Especially as the team won the last World Cup. In response I will highlight their bowling attack. Many will point to South Africa's recent success against the West Indies. I will highlight our past failures at the World Cup and a lack of consistency in One Day Internationals in recent years. 

Australia will be playing at home, and the talent and experience in their squad will make them strong favourites.

Mitchell Starc is an excellent bowler in the Australian team. Photo from www.telegraph.co.uk

The pitches in Australia and New Zealand favour fast bowlers and attacking batsmen. Australia has exactly that. Mitchell Starc has burst onto the scene as a deadly fast bowler. The 24-year-old has already taken 59 ODI wickets at an average of 20.11 and economy of 4.97. Pat Cummins is another young bowler with very fast pace and skill, and James Faulkner is a great death bowler. 

The batsmen in the team should be of even more concern to opposition teams. Aaron Finch and David Warner are a deadly opening combination. Both are aggressive, and if either stays in for more than 30 overs, the team will probably set a total of 300+. If Michael Clarke (33) recovers from his injury he will be the most experienced player in the team. He has scored 7 762 ODI runs at an average of 44.86. George Bailey and Glenn Maxwell can provide great end-of-innings smashing, while Brad Haddin brings much experience.

As of 23 January Australia is ranked fourth in the world in ODIs, according to the International Cricket Council rankings. England is first, South Africa is second and India is third. Australia have also won the World Cup the most number of times, which is four times.

Tide turns against the Caribbean

I blogged in December that South Africa would beat the West Indies in their Test series, but the Caribbean side would win the T20 International series. I was correct. I also said that the One Day International series could go either way. I've changed my mind.

The return of AB de Villiers and other key players will likely help the Proteas win the current ODI series against the West Indies.

When the Proteas won the Test series 2–0 it was no surprise, although the West Indies pushed us hard in the second Test. Losing the T20I International series 2–1 was expected. But the Proteas showed determination to make our highest T20I score (231) in the second match, and put in a good all-round performance in the third match to win back some pride. After our victory in the third T20I, I think that momentum has shifted towards us, and with the return of some of our best cricketers, I am 70% certain we will win the ODI series.

AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla, Dale Steyn, JP Duminy and Vernon Philander come back to the playing 11. This will bolster the Proteas, while I think the West Indies squad will be pretty tired after a long tour. The five ODIs will be played in a short space of time (16, 18, 21, 25 and 28 January). This will demand a lot from the players.

With the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 to start in less than one month, both sides will see this series as preparation, and want to make sure they know what their strengths and weaknesses are. A win would also boost their confidence. But I think SA will take it. We are better rested and have our best players back.

Alviro – A player of the past

Alviro Petersen (34) recently announced his decision to retire from international cricket. This will come into effect from 01 April. The Proteas opening batsman made his Test match debut for South Africa in February 2010, in India. He scored 100 in his first innings.

Alviro Petersen did the right thing by retiring from international cricket now. Photo taken from www.allthingsjabu.co.za

For me, Petersen joined the national side when we were struggling to find good opening batsmen. He did well. His respectable performances seemed like an answer to our need. Establishing himself as a reliable Test opener, he attacked from early on in his innings, slowed down later, and often finished on a good score.

But as with every cricketer, as the years went on he struggled more and more to turn out the good performances we saw from him in the past. The inevitable effect of time influenced his career, and his batting average dropped to less than 40. Then it dropped to the mid thirties, where it will probably stay forever.

Do not misunderstand me. I thoroughly enjoyed watching Alviro Petersen open the batting for South Africa. He displayed great technique and played with confidence. He also played very well for the bizhub Highveld Lions, the domestic cricket team in Johannesburg. I will miss Petersen. But it is time for him to go.

Even the greats Jacques Kallis, Ricky Ponting and Sachin Tendulkar had to retire when they could not go on. It is part of life. The spirit may endure but the body and mind will eventually fail. Farewell Alviro Peterson and thanks for five years of good cricket.

Below are Alviro Petersen's statistics as of 12 January 2015:

Batting and fielding averages

	Mat	Inns	NO	Runs	HS	Ave	BF	SR	100	50	4s	6s	Ct	St
Tests	36	64	4	2093	182	34.88	4044	51.75	5	8	256	12	31	0
ODIs	21	19	1	504	80	28.00	610	82.62	0	4	54	3	5	0
T20Is	2	2	0	14	8	7.00	19	73.68	0	0	1	0	1	0
First-class	188	330	17	12191	210	38.94			35	50			148	0
List A	168	161	11	5083	145*	33.88			7	31			64	0
Twenty20	109	103	17	2445	84*	28.43	2005	121.94	0	16	231	59	53	0

Bowling averages

	Mat	Inns	Balls	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	4w	5w	10
Tests	36	7	114	62	1	1/2	1/2	62.00	3.26	114.0	0	0	0
ODIs	21	1	6	7	0	-	-	-	7.00	-	0	0	0
T20Is	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
First-class	188		1582	809	16	3/58		50.56	3.06	98.8	0	0	0
List A	168		394	361	8	2/48	2/48	45.12	5.49	49.2	0	0	0
Twenty20	109	19	199	215	9	1/4	1/4	23.88	6.48	22.1	0	0	0

Solution to India's wicketkeeper problem

The recent retirement of Mahendra Singh Dhoni (33) from Test cricket will likely be a blow to Indian cricket. Dhoni was formerly the Test captain, and a good wicketkeeper. He is a competitive but well-mannered, calm man, who one cannot help but respect. His aggression with the bat is well known, and he will probably destroy several bowling attacks in One Day Internationals and T20 Internationals for at least one more year.

A great wicketkeeper will be needed to fill the shoes of Mahendra Singh Dhoni. Photo from www.linkedin.com

But his calling time on Test cricket came a big surprise to many. Although Virat Kohli has been made the new Test captain, no suitable replacement wicketkeeper has been groomed yet. Here is a solution I propose of how the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) should respond to the wicketkeeper gap Dhoni leaves behind.

1. Allow Wriddhiman Saha to fill the gap until the World Cup. The 30-year-old wicketkeeper is in the Test side but has not performed well in internationals yet. His age and poor performances leaves me to think that he should act only as a temporary replacement until the World Cup is over early next year, so that a suitable replacement can be slowly introduced in all three formats of the game.

2. Consider the 'Tried Alreadies'. Robin Uthappa, Dinesh Karthik and Parthiv Patel are all good wicketkeeper batsmen with some international experience. However, all three are 29 years old and the expiry dates on their international careers are sooner than one might like. The BCCI should consider them, as they at least deserve consideration, but then move on to better alternatives.

3. Consider the 'We Could Try Hims'. Ambati Rayudu (29) is a very good batsman who occasionally puts on the gloves. He could be persuaded to do so on a permanent basis. If he agrees and performs well he could be an effective wicketkeeper for a few years. But...

Sanju Samson (20) is the Quinton de Kock of India. He is a young, attacking batsman who has already hurt his country's best bowlers domestically. I think he would be the best long-term replacement for Dhoni in all formats. From what I have seen of him in the Indian Premiere League, he has the big match temperament and confidence that could see him go far. His domestic statistics are not great, but it is a tad early to judge them. I believe that he could easily be India's best wicketkeeper batsman in a few years.

Sanju Samson may be the solution to the wicketkeeper problem in India. Photo from www.sportskeeda.com

SA to win Tests, West Indies to take T20Is

The upcoming South Africa vs West Indies tour will not be as one-sided as it might have been a year or so ago. Although the Proteas are probably the better team on paper, they have not been in great form lately, and the men from the Caribbean are extremely good in the shorter formats of the game. To make matters worse, JP Duminy is injured and may miss all the Test matches.

Proteas Batsman JP Duminy is injured.

With three Tests, starting 17 December, three T20 Internationals and then five One Day Internationals, we can look forward to a lot of great cricket over December and January. The Test series is probably where SA will be the strongest, and the T20Is is where we will be the weakest.

The Proteas have also included some new players in the Test squad which will make it interesting. Stiaan van Zyl, Temba Bavuma and Kagiso Rabada are exciting prospects. I am especially looking forward to seeing how far Rabada goes in his career. We need a young, good fast bowler in our international squads, as our more experienced fast bowlers are showing their age. Even Dale Steyn will not be good forever...

All in all, I think the Proteas will win the Test series at least by two matches. I think the West Indies will take the T20I series. Their prolific T20 players such as Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo, Sunil Narine, Andre Russel, Kieron Pollard and Darren Sammy will likely be too much for us. I can even see us losing it 3–0. The ODI series could go either way.

Kieron pollard could hurt South Africa in the shorter cricket formats. Image from zeenews.india.com 

Three players who make the Black Caps a dark horse

Stephen Fleming recently said in an interview on Hooked on Cricket, that New Zealand, Australia, England and South Africa all have a very good chance to win next year's cricket world cup. New Zealand have never been given much of a chance to win a world cup before. Could it be that they are a dark horse to win next year's? I believe so.

The ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 will be held in New Zealand and Australia. The hard, bouncy pitches in these countries will support the fast bowlers, while making it harder for spinners. This will suite the above-mentioned teams, yet pose a challenge to sub-continent teams, which usually rely on their spinners. New Zealand have had a tough couple of years lately but now seem to be getting it right.

Here are some players I love watching in the New Zealand team, and who I believe will pose a threat to their opposition:

Brendon McCullum

Brendon McCullum. Photo from www.indiatoday.intoday.in

Even if he doesn't keep wickets anymore, he is a match-winning batsman. The 33-year-old once scored 158* in an Indian Premier League T20 match! The aggressive batsman is generally inconsistent, either scoring few or scoring lots of runs. But he has accumulated 5 200 runs in One Day Internationals at an average of 30.05, and at a strike rate of 90.56 (as of 04 December), making him both a dangerous and experienced batsman.

Ross Taylor

Ross Taylor. Photo from www.cricketcountry.com

My favourite Black Cap player to watch. Taylor has been in and out of the squad because of injury, and because of favour, or rather lack of it, with management. Yet he remains indisputably their best batsman. The 30-year-old has been through it all and tempers his world-class skill with patience and innovation. He has scored 4 238 runs in ODIs at an average of 40.07, and at a strike rate of 82.39. This guy has big match temperament (BMT), one to watch out for.

Mitchell McClenaghan

Mitchell McClenaghan. Photo from www.bbc.com

He may not be the most experienced fast bowler in the side, but from what I have seen from him he has what it takes to make a difference in the world cup. The 28-year-old is quick, has a nice action, controls the ball well, and has proven that he can take on the best teams. In his ODI debut he took 4 wickets for 20 runs against South Africa. He has taken 50 ODI wickets at an average of 23.48, with an economy of 5.77. Not the best stats, but he is better than they show, and will be a handful on the fast and bouncy pitches.

SA vs Australia – the ultimate contest

Every South African cricket lover knows that the matches between South Africa and Australia are either the best or worst ones to watch. There is no middle ground, no run-in-the-mill "let me see what else is on TV because this is so boring" kind of match. Games between these proud, sports-obsessed nations are always exciting and memorable. 

You may remember watching for hours with eyes transfixed on the screen, ignoring your tummy moaning for food, as JP Duminy (166) and Dale Steyn (76) put on a ninth-wicket partnership of 180 to turn the fortunes of a Test match in Melbourne in 2008. Or you may remember the time Allan Donald dropped his bat and was run out in the 1999 Cricket World Cup semi-final. 

The contest between SA and Australia has always been heated. Here Proteas batsman Hashim Amla plays a ball from Australian bowler Nathan Coulter-Nile. Photo taken from www1.skysports.com

Yes I am bringing to attention the nightmare of how we tied with Australia but did not progress in the world cup because the Aussies finished higher in the Super Sixes stage, all because Donald dropped his bat and did not start running early enough to score us the winning run. Indeed, the ferocity of the contest between the nations goes back to the famous 1969-70 tour in SA, which SA won 4–0, through the likes of Barry Richards and Graeme Pollock.

With the current One Day International (ODI) series between the teams at 2–1 to Australia with two matches to go, we can expect the rest of the series to be exhilarating. The last two games will be played on 21 and 23 November. The current series includes mini-contests: Dale Steyn (SA) and Mitchell Johnson (AUS) will be gunning for the unofficial title of best bowler in the series, by taking the most wickets. 

AB de Villiers will look to score many runs against Australia in the current ODI series.

This while Glenn Maxwell (AUS) and David Miller (SA), who play together for Kings XI Punjab in the Indian Premier League (IPL), will want to see who finishes with more runs and the highest strike rate. India are currently rated the best ODI team in the world by the International Cricket Council (ICC), with 117 points. SA are second with 115 points, and Australia are third with 114 points. A series win for either the Proteas or the Aussies could put the team at the top of the table.